Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.210137 0.252769 0.303994 0.370739 0.456384 0.563935 7.113681e-01
2025-05-25 0.141806 0.185236 0.243159 0.327889 0.451856 0.631898 9.235939e-01
2025-06-01 0.107412 0.150414 0.213156 0.314959 0.483364 0.765566 1.310147e+00
2025-06-08 0.084204 0.125250 0.190084 0.305756 0.520889 0.936973 1.904904e+00
2025-06-15 0.068400 0.107446 0.173789 0.303323 0.573820 1.181015 2.920303e+00
2025-06-22 0.056494 0.093174 0.159761 0.301220 0.631849 1.496264 4.612452e+00
2025-06-29 0.045686 0.078355 0.140945 0.283650 0.651431 1.756266 6.752767e+00
2025-07-06 0.033856 0.059268 0.109361 0.228007 0.550755 1.600716 7.054479e+00
2025-07-13 0.029030 0.052582 0.101284 0.224399 0.592589 1.977403 1.140432e+01
2025-07-20 0.025833 0.048464 0.097653 0.230943 0.673471 2.643600 2.165827e+01
2025-07-27 0.023425 0.045481 0.095851 0.242318 0.785145 3.702957 4.766525e+01
2025-08-03 0.021185 0.042413 0.093103 0.250435 0.898369 5.120371 1.135817e+02
2025-08-10 0.018387 0.037745 0.085705 0.242976 0.952993 6.483040 2.629522e+02
2025-08-17 0.015903 0.033349 0.077955 0.231411 0.983767 7.926789 6.445042e+02
2025-08-24 0.014334 0.030847 0.074736 0.235070 1.109571 11.310095 3.238191e+03
2025-08-31 0.012990 0.028646 0.071822 0.239014 1.254205 16.540823 3.972673e+04
2025-09-07 0.011908 0.026904 0.069821 0.246250 1.447022 25.777687 4.044806e+07
2025-09-14 0.010934 0.025264 0.067716 0.252433 1.659555 41.059817 NaN
2025-09-21 0.009810 0.023019 0.063093 0.244566 1.744730 56.060603 NaN
2025-09-28 0.008197 0.019192 0.052439 0.202160 1.425569 44.081438 NaN
2025-10-05 0.007552 0.017977 0.050329 0.202555 1.566521 66.573406 NaN
2025-10-12 0.007116 0.017280 0.049822 0.211420 1.839216 122.910320 NaN
2025-10-19 0.006774 0.016794 0.049951 0.224409 2.227659 267.907823 NaN